Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 10.556132 12.397074 14.419941 16.801652 19.522826 22.528364 26.092594
2024-12-22 7.747115 10.124046 12.980576 16.641745 21.182368 26.599476 33.519134
2024-12-29 6.013029 8.609909 11.975900 16.603632 22.737123 30.516367 41.046145
2025-01-05 4.630140 7.202374 10.770077 15.987500 23.311171 33.096153 47.000038
2025-01-12 3.807182 6.373688 10.151407 15.978512 24.567305 36.554606 54.287483
2025-01-19 3.178631 5.696574 9.610658 15.946711 25.702075 39.852440 61.534430
2025-01-26 2.878420 5.472084 9.697192 16.822455 28.201385 45.242780 72.120575
2025-02-02 2.593534 5.215880 9.681186 17.505405 30.430706 50.364039 82.641802
2025-02-09 2.370059 5.024432 9.734222 18.282662 32.846677 55.910467 94.150497
2025-02-16 2.059657 4.614975 9.347759 18.255830 33.918735 59.398613 102.662780
2025-02-23 1.728194 4.102724 8.700412 17.682515 33.989314 61.244677 108.639545
2025-03-02 1.437397 3.617569 8.030935 16.977068 33.737117 62.498623 113.679257
2025-03-09 1.268940 3.370004 7.799499 17.082907 34.971546 66.398352 123.473615
2025-03-16 1.108094 3.108929 7.504219 17.029476 35.905706 69.845059 132.730559
2025-03-23 0.974281 2.884743 7.252807 17.029392 36.929619 73.506221 142.572428
2025-03-30 0.814627 2.561234 6.735118 16.412732 36.692473 74.861253 148.410252
2025-04-06 0.718978 2.383873 6.519819 16.408297 37.655858 78.467035 158.478494
2025-04-13 0.634408 2.217963 6.305686 16.377438 38.553326 81.993294 168.587695
2025-04-20 0.609154 2.218136 6.494739 17.274523 41.448693 89.504470 186.494921
2025-04-27 0.575108 2.184821 6.594761 17.973788 43.974620 96.440643 203.671380
2025-05-04 0.547665 2.166477 6.730419 18.769351 46.765581 104.052174 222.511644
2025-05-11 0.488079 2.030269 6.534737 18.741922 47.742990 108.097916 234.675533
2025-05-18 0.415204 1.830028 6.132764 18.155182 47.412461 109.463404 241.659137